These are 9 pictures
I usually put up my Annual Economic forecast
State of the Nation
latest by June 30TH every year.
But This year
Met & Media reports were
confusing me a lot!!!
The Chief MET spokesperson for once was misguiding economic analysts and forecasters, on his Monsoon forecast. So for the first time in these 15 years I delved deep into MET website & got myself area-wise rain forecast PDFs with a map, prepared by MET , which confirmed my hunch. Economic forecasters, business analysts, entrepreneurs & Doctors, use clinical tests only to confirm, the symptoms come to us by years of experience. Conservative scientists are always very patient and observant of symptoms. That is why like animal instinct, they can judge an earthquake, tsunami, flood or fever, much before normal human beings do that. Am not boasting, in these 15 years , only 1 forecast of mine in respect of India went wrong, That was 2011, and I did not properly analyse the Political risk from Janlokpal movement. Leave alone me, no one did!!!..I tweeted about my analysis on 10/7/2012, I this time took a screenshot of those tweets, and now forecast the following.
I have in my previous posts already proved, That Anna Hazare movement is purely responsible for the economic drubbing that India received in 2011. It was a human creation, not a fallout of any economic trigger.
The pictures say it all look at a link in the 1st tweet of 5TH picture titled State of The Nation
I will quickly add the pictures after which I will give you added links of last week, i.e. post 10TH July 20
(the day these tweets were posted :-)
Blogging hampered by a strange sudden event, pc getting powered off, blogger not saving posts, the error message is "There is surge on USB Ports" Which vanishes if and when I type in MS-WORD, but re-surfaces whenever I get on twitter/blogger . The blogger error message is "
Monsoon Deficient Areas via The Telegraph Kolkata HERE
I will quickly add the pictures after which I will give you added links of last week, i.e. post 10TH July 20
(the day these tweets were posted :-)
Blogging hampered by a strange sudden event, pc getting powered off, blogger not saving posts, the error message is "There is surge on USB Ports" Which vanishes if and when I type in MS-WORD, but re-surfaces whenever I get on twitter/blogger . The blogger error message is "
An error occurred while trying to save or publish your post. Please try again. Ignore warning " :-) Gotcha Blogger..
what follows is typed in MS-WORD AND COPY PASTED
I can tweet via sms :-)
Normally my forecast
has been out by June 30TH each year, but this year, owing to
confusing signals from Chief MET spokes person, on Monsoon, I was puzzled. The
macro economic signals and the reports from my network of ex employee farmers
in Rajasthan, Western UP, Maharashtra and West Bengal were giving me bleak crop
outlook and here was the MET spokes person saying Monsoon was normal. Except
the Andhra Tamil Nadu sector, crop outlook Pan India is Bleak. Floods in Liecester , UK ,
drought in Mid West US, Floods in Russia ,
South China , The weather gods are behaving
exactly opposite of what it has been for the past 5 years. Read anyone who has
traveled to California, London, Moscow or South China, read Vir Sanghvi (rude
food in @HTBrunch ) ask @richardquest watch @CNN world weather carefully.
Wether is Terribly Horrible. After all Pachauri might be right!!! Latest news
is that a Glacier has detached itself from Greenland .
I have been dead
right every year, except for the last year, where I erred in reading the signals
of the Janlokpal Civil society movement of Sh Anna Hazare, I have proved in my
previous posts, that the economic turmoil in India has matched with the
agitation dates of Jalokpal movement, so if you are a stock market investor, be
ready to buy on 25TH July, when the next phase of their movement
takes place.
The only difference
between what Oprah Winfrey says “ Indians still eat with hands “ & Arvind
Kejriwal “ Neta donon haathon se kha rahee hain “ J
It is about eating and how. Whatever one says, Business means profit, means
hoodwinking, actually, the biggest corruption on the face of earth is by Apple
Inc, however logic you may give me, it is blatant cheating of a consumer.
Corruption and Profit are one and the same thing. It is conservative Keynesians
like us, me , Bernanke, Buffet, who use reverse psychology, to make a killing.
If you behave in a herd mentality, you lose, ALWAYS.
Please check bitly
link on 1st tweet in picture
5 to check Indian Monsoon scenario please picture titled :-> State of The Nation 1
In the end I will add
current news links to confirm my analogy later, please come back tomorrow to
check them. Thank you.
Banking Scenario Principles behind CRR & SLR 1
Picture 1
Banking Scenario Principles behind CRR & SLR 2
CRR & SLR 1
Picture 3
CRR & SLR 2
Picture 4
State of The Nation 1
Picture 5
State of The Nation 2
Picture 6
State of The Nation 3
Picture 7
State of The Nation 4
Picture 8
State of The Nation 5
Picture 9
Conclusion
1 CRR SLR Repo rate
STATUS QUO i.e. no change!!!
2 Sensex Bullish on account opf Food Security Bill, GST,
North bound food prices, Infrastructural pending orders.
Positive Sectors FMCG, Manufacturing, Infrastructure like
L&T , Seimens, Walchand, Gammon
India (METRO PROJECTS) HUL, Nestle, Jubilant Group(Bhartias Jubilant Foods
& Organosys) Pharma (for generic drug growth), Computer Hardware & Mobile apps, Retail (Indian firms
only) Specific Airtel, Maruti Udyog(all
other auto –ve), TCS (all opther software –ve), Hero Motor corp, Bajaj Scooters
(Two wheelers bullish)
PSU Banks. HDFC HDFC Bank & Yes Bank. Computer
education.
Bullish sectors 2 wheeler, PSU OIL( FOR DIESEL PRICES)
Education, Road/Metro Infra, Nuclear & Space Infra, Food majors,
Pesticides.
Negative Sectors: Software, 4 wheeler. Not naming 4 PSU
banks as I happen to be a banker. ( google CAR DEFICIENT) Telecom, Realty ,
Healthcare (private on litigation costs) Farm Equipment, Fertilizers Anything
remotely related to Agriculture. Export oriented.
Those Firms concentrating on US & European exports
Bearish, those exporting to Germany Middle East Civil works & Africa bullish. Most of Birla Firms and TCS should do
good. The focal point being, any firm which is product diversified, or market
diversified will thrive & those concentrating on US & Europe falter.
3 Gold hyper bullish as Currency market and Oil will
falter Gold is the natural fall back
asset during times of economic uncertainity.
4 Commodities Food Bullish Metals bearish.
5 Silver Bullish because of unrest in Middle east, the Petro Dollars will flow more towards white
metal, than investments, as Sheiks would be vary of investing, during uncertain
times of US & European turmoil.
6 China
is seeing heavy political and civil unrest. More and more negative news
emanating from China , on
climatic conditions as well as civil disturbance, The sopcio economic condition
in China
is bad due to high inflation. Crops have failed in Southern
China and Urban populace is reeling under price rise in realty and
food inflation.
7 Interest rate. Spain
and Italy have seen spurt in
interest rates and Germany
& Japan
are seeking a fee to take deposits. This indicates bullish trend &
hardening of interest rates.
8 Diwali Forecast BAD DIWALI WORST IN 5 YEARS. See Monsoon
chart of 5 years to confirm.
9 Light in the Tunnel. Only one way out. Focus in equity
raising as that happens top be the ONLY WAY OUT , for the corporate, because
i)
Firms have a huge stockpile of cash
ii)
Public has no way for investment as Mutual funds are
all negative
iii)
Gold is the only other investment option
iv)
Public saving in Banks shows –ve growth which indicates public holding a huge cash pile ,
which can be exploited
10 Don’t expect much from Governments, because, the
experience of Greece , Spain & Italy have made Sovereign Funds and
Central Bankers risk averse
11 BREAKING NEWS Watch a Programme running on CNN
international on after effects of Olympics. My study of the subject shows, London will follow Montreal
& Athens and not Barcelona
& Atlanta
reason being
a) Look
at tourism industry
b) Airline
Industry
c) International
Holiday expense data
d) All
the above show negligible travel ti Greece
& Spain
in spite of heavy discounts
Pray for all, if you have a job, treasure it, if you are
entering career, postpone it, by joining a value addition course, because your
starting package would decide, where you end up. If you are an entrepreneur,
consolidate, improvise and invest, build capabilities for the Boom, which in my
view shall be in 2013 for sure.
My bust years 1991(oil crisis middle east Iraq )-1994(Harshad Mehta scam)-
1997(CRB Capotal)-2000(Infotech bust)-2003(AfPak)-2006(Oil)-2009(eurozone)-2012(Weather)
so If I see the trends 2013-14 will be boom phase
Lets pray
Optimism: What goes down comes up and vice versa, Samay ka
khela hai, upar neechey, aana jaana laga rehta hai, Keep Smiling & stay
calm
May there be peace
#Venuspeak
Greece should pay wages through Drachma GERMAN MP via reuters HERE
Monsoon Deficient Areas via The Telegraph Kolkata HERE
Check The latest news on financial crisis in Europe. Especially after yesterdays bear short selling in Spain & demonstrations in Madrid
ReplyDeletehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/