Economic Times Loves The Number 15000 Proof

Year after Year after Year

my beloved pink paper

The Economic Times

Proclaims of course quoting someone

" Sensex may drift to 15,000 "

Exhibit 1 Article dated 4Th October, 2011

Exhibit 2 Article dated 16Th May, 2012

Exhibit 3 Video dated 31st March, 2012

Exhibit 4 Video dated 31st August, 2011

Exhibit 5 My Google Search Result for " Sensex will be 15000 economic times "

Exhibit 6 BSE Sensex edges up; still in consolidation mode dated today July 4th 2012 when Sensex is 17462.81

Exhibit 7  Sensex on 31st December 2011 on bseindia

The Huddle VenuG

The Road from here is with collective focussed good governance with Rants , Rumblings & Rabble Rousing Agitations .

Learn to Cut Your Coats according to your cloth , Live Frugally .. & Puhleeze .. If you don't let the Government you elected to govern you & take policy decisions .. you are behaving Like Kalidas .. Cutting your own branches .. Please Don't murder your own future & future of India , that is Bharat .. A Socialist , Secular Democratic Republic .. As per The Constitution of India .. As envisaged by Dr B R Ambedkar & the Constituent Assembly on 26th November 1949 , which we adopted , enacted & Gave unto ourselves for implementation from January the 26th 1950 . Let us write Abhigyan Shakuntalam instead .. & Make a Vasudeva Kutumbakam .
NOTE
Written in flow ex - tempore , without referring to Wikipedia , Google or Any text book .

Pardon me for bad punctuation .. & formatting .. Written on a Nokia E 63 on the run .. Within my tight work schedules .. I'm Saree if I'm Sarong
:-)

The Huddle VenuG

Dear Trader ,

As you sit so tense , afraid . Saying your prayers , as you start your NSE-Terminals or Your BSEINDIA.COM , Offices , worrying about the fate of your investors , the stocks YOU specialised in , the jobbers , your day trading regular clients & above all YOUR JOB & YOUR ENTERPRISE .

What will happen ? Where will the Sensex go .. This may mean many different things to different people .

Why this blog & why this urgency .. Look I'm a man .. Who can own a 4 wheeler .. But do not even own a bicycle( Oh Son has 1 ) .. Not that I can't but I did not want to .. To give my kids a hard life ... So that they could act calm in London & Brevik situations .. With chin up in the Air ..

My investment in stocks is ZERO .. Oh not really .. I have 200 HDFC Bank .. 5000 Syndicatebank .. 100 Maruti Suzuki .. The last trade I did was sell .. I sold All my shares fv 5000 @ 75000 in June 2000 & put it into my House I never bought from market .. Except regularly buying & selling my own bank share & have made 50 x on it .. But have stopped after 2002 at 42 .

Oh .. Sorry .. Why I'm writing .. For you Youngistan .. Stock Broker , Media Person .. FII .. PE Investor ..

Dear Media .. The future of a 1.3bn Indians is in your hands .. When President Obama was adressing on American S&P Downgrade .. He said .. America is a AAA Rated Country .. The Downgrade .. Was not on financial front but on Political indecision in The US .. At that time .. The only news channel was paying attention was Zee News .. Rest were showing Godforsaken programmes .. NDTV Profit had Money Mantra .. Pankaj Pachauri talking to Bejan Daruwala .. Come on .. Millions of young kids might not get appointment letters from IT Firms if you behave SO IRRESPONSIBLY. ET NOW NDTV IBN TIMESNOW STARNEWS DID NOT CARRY IT LIVE ..

BBCWORLD BLOOMBERG CNBC TV 18 Showed it live & analysed .. Immediately .. Because they knew .. Many of their & panelists jobs depended on this ..

What The Media MUST DO .. Watch post speech interviews on Cnbc TV 18 , Richard Quest on CNN , bbcworld analysis ' OVER & OVER & OVER AGAIN ' & only then open your mouth .. Pay attention on 3 words .. ' Panic ' , ' Worries about future ' , ' Political Indecision ' .. Because those are the ' KEYWORDS ' . IF , you are not able to comprehend it .. Just zip up your lips and keep your audio off & show data charts .. BECAUSE IF YOU OPEN YOUR MOUTH , Like you have been since the Commonwealth Games .. And its Aftermath .. You will ruin future of Millions of Yuppies & more millions of the ' YOUNGISTAN ' job seekers . Companies will collapse & Jobs will dry up .. You Tube will help you here .

To Opposition .. Behave as an Indian .. Go into a Huddle .. Let Laloo , Mulayam , Mamata , Karat , Manmohan , Sushma , NaMo , Rajnath , Jaya , PC form a circle With Captain Pranob Da ( He is key here ) & Go into a Huddle .. Like Team India Did in The Cricket World Cup .. Google Images will get a you a picture in a Jiffy ..

To YOUNGISTAN .. Be Positive #BharatRocks start using the word Bharat & Not India .. BECAUSE everywhere .. Including @ S&P Indians Rule .. Just think Why ? Because our Education System is THE BEST IN THE WORLD .. It teaches you .. Patience , Hardwork , Resilience, Humility , Assimilation , Tolerance & Above all Multi-Culturalism & Secularism .... Lately .. Aspirations & Demands for Material Goods ... Greed .. Keeping up with Jainses & I me myself Creed has grown .. Do not forget .. You have acquired this thinking power & Verbalising your Viewpoints by Education & Also .. Whether it is Deven Sharma of Standard & Poor , Vikram Pandit of CitiBank , or Indira Nooyi of Pepsico , Jain of Deutsche Bank , Laxmi Niwas Mittal the Steel Baron , Narayana Murthy of Infosys , Sabeer Bhatia of Hotmail / Junglee , Mulchandani of Naukri & Chetan Bhagat The Five point Someone are ALL , Products of this same Education System .. What is working need not be tampered ..
Use the Hashtag #BharatROCKS and share Indian achievements on Twitter.com .. If you do Sensex will Shoot Back to 18500 which it is worth Today & 25000 in December .. On the basis of Corporate Results , Turnover Data , Export Figures , Employment VenuG is '' EXTREMELY BULLISH ON INDIA '' 1.3bn PEOPLE are my BASIS of Confidence .


To FII's , PE firms .. Gentlemen & Ladies .. I give you 5 tips look at following

1 Energy Consumption
2 CAGR of Car Sales Small , Sedan , SUV
3 Rise of Android vis-a-vis Apple iOS4 iPhone
4 Calculate 1.3bn *
A) 5 mtrs of cloth
B) 1 Kg of Wheat / 2 * 365 + 1 Kg of Rice / 2 * 365
C) 100 gms sugar * 365 100 gms Fat / oil * 365 + 500 gms vegetable * 365
D) 1 Dwelling house / 25
E ) 20 mn cell phones & 10 mn pc & 10 mn television

That's the basic market ..
Finally look @ RBI Repo Rate rise & rise in demand of Commodities
Indian Demand is a Hungry Bengal .. .. Even Sweepers have refrigerators , television , mobile phone & Hero Honda & SHOE / FOOTWEAR ( THIS IS IMPORTANT ) You don't find any barefoot Indian Sportsmen @ Olympics or International Sports meet ..
Ram Shanker Maity my part time Sweeper & Man Friday tells me in 1978 Football players used to go to Football Club , barefoot & the club used to give the Football spikes which they wore & left at club , you could not bring it home ,, now kids wear their own Adidas .. Nike ..

I saw world cup finals in 1983 at Lords on a Indian Colour Television , EC TV , HAWAMAHAL , but the feed was of BBC WORLD SERVICE SPORTS , whereas .. India is focal in 9 international sports .. India is no longer land of Snake Charmers , Magicians , Beggars & Indian Rope Trick .. But We Have Space Charmers , Micro biologists , B-Schools & Indian Hope Trick

India Rocks No In the correct sense it is #BharatRocks

****** JAI HIND JAI BHARAT ******
Towards 30000 Sensex .. 10% GDP Growth & India the number 1 Economy in Year 2015

Positive factor Brent & NYMEX Crude down 3.5%

Whither Sensex VenuSpeak on My Views on Sensex . I'm truly bullish 18k is the bottom it is buying opportunity now.

Rider : These are personal views of K.Venugopal Menon .. Please consult your Financial Advisers before acquiring Stocks always .. Because market perception changes by the Minute ..

Example:- If UPAII falls market will crash .. If , if petroleum gas prices go up .. Market crashes .. So take your personal investment decision on your personal financial advisors advice .. Not my utterances ..

Portfolio mix for a 30 yr old married person .

1 PF double the amount stipulated by employer if employer deducts 10% and contributes another 10% you should contribute another 10%

2 PPF IN SBI / BOB Ra 15000 per year Till Sec 88 exists after which pension fund


3 INCOME * 10 LIFE INSURANCE COVER

3(a) + 5 LAKHS FLOATER MEDICLAIM (CASHLESS )


Left over cash savings


4 Bank deposits 20%

5 mutual fund 20% of which

5(i) Sensex linked 25% Switch to debt frequently 60:40 to 40:60
5(ii) SIP 50% Switch to debt frequently 60:40 to 40:60
5(iii) sector funds 25% Highly risky
Switch to debt frequently 60:40 to 40:60

6 10% NSC till section 88 exists rollover maturities back after 6 years

7 10% BOND KHOKHA's debentures from market BOUGHT AT DISCOUNT FROM MARKET when bank interest rates go up/ or Sensex crashes Bond prices go up.. hence always buy bonds when Sensex is heated up or RBI reduces interest rates.

8 20% IN STOCKS

check link please how sometimes SENSEX BEHAVES IRRATIONALY IT FALLS ON NO REASON SOMETIMES

9 20% Cash liquid in Casa Account

Want to be a Warren Buffett .. Build your perfect portfolio .. Say Economic Times .. &
my buddy Shifali Ummatt a MF dealer of good repute shares it on Fb ..

What Economic Times failed to mention ..

'' Never believe a word written in Economic Times .. '' #VenuSpeak

Why I say Sensex would rise ..

A) Consumer demand has not fallen for core areas like Steel , Cement , Iron Ore , Copper

B) Infrastructure jobs are on the Anvil in huge numbers ..
So engineering graduates to take civil & chemical engineering not ECE or IT or Computers .. Electronics is fine. Days of softwares are numbered.

C) Inspite of high interest rates Credit offtake is facing heavy pressure .. Being a banker I can say Bank Credit will see 20% rise in March 2012 balance sheet .

D) Jobs are on the rise so are pay packets .

E) Except for Cars & Motor Cycles or +40 lakhs houses .. Demand is constant

F) We are 1.3 billion people .. Check how much Atta you use for you family chappati's . Divide by number of family members .. Multiply by 3*30*12*1.3bn / 2 /2 as 50% rice eaters .. This is just for Atta .. Clothing shelter follow .. India China can never fail in future I stand by India #1 Economic power circa 2015

G) Sector .. Banking , Infrastructure , IT Hardware , Food , Agriculture based .. Fertilizers , Pesticides , Tractors . HCL , SBI , PNB , CORPORATION BANK , OBC , HDFC BANK , YES BANK , TATA STEEL , SAIL , REC , PFC , NTPC , HCL TECHNOLOGY , ROLTA INDIA , PATNI COMPUTERS , CMC , NIIT .

H) Sector to ignore Software ( $ is a highly overrated currency ) Housing finance related banks , Banks high on vehicle loans , Automobile ( except Maruti Suzuki/ Hero Honda / Bajaj Scooters ) Retail , Telecom , Firm investing abroad . Say Tata acquiring Land Rover @ $ = Ra 48 .. Sells $= Ra 40 they pay 48 get 40 20% loss in exchange risk .. So investing abroad with a falling $ is foolish ..

I) Imagine this If Berkshire Hathaway ( Warren Buffet's Firm) had invested Into India $ 1 , in October 2008 when $ 1 was Ra 48.48 and sold it today with $ at 44.78 it would have gained 7.46% just on the currency appreciation .. Ra appreciating by the day .. think what would he gain in 2015, when I perceive $ to be 35 per $ 27.80% .

Here are links for worst crashes and reasons &

PE Ratio from 1990 to 2008

&

Basic indicators of the sensex as at month end May 2011 look @ the PE OF 19.59 OF BSE 30 AND 19.88 OF BSE 100 now only a fool would desist from entering a market with PE ratio of 19

Sensex & Market Capitalisation today check wwith my tips

SENSEX from 24th October, 2008 the crash to 1st June 2011 excell sheet for download

Thanks for your share Shifali .. .. This goes on my blog ..
You made me wrack my Bankers Brain @Shifali Ummatt ..
Using your name and not nickname as this thread goes verbatim on my Blog

Dear Blogger it took 40 attempts and 2 tweets for me to post this blog.


I am warned that I post spam .. this reflects badly on your network security & also affects my freedom of expression

Hope you like my effort feel free to comment.. once again these are my views, and you may differ from me which is acceptable to me

Jai Hind

Good Night

@kvenugopalmenon on twitter