Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Moody Blues : Why The Standards at S&P are SO Poor ? !!!

Is Standard and Poor Fair in its analyisis ??

   Such news as are sensational affect currency, stock and money markets badly, Hence International Rating Agencies like Fitch Moody's and S&P must excercise extreme caution while passing such remarks.

 " S&P Says India May Be First in BRIC to Lose Investment Grade " says Bloomberg HERE

" Standard & Poor's warn s India of a downgrade to junk category " Says The Times of India HERE

" Top 10 S&P reasons why India may lose investment-grade rating " says NDTV HERE

" S&P warns India risking investment downgrade " says Norther Voices News HERE

" Standard & Poor's threat sullies Cong's global image " says  The Times of India HERE

" India may become first BRIC nation to lose its investment grade, warns Standard & Poor’s " HERE

" Lack of political will holding India back: Deepak Parekh " says moneycontol.com  HERE

Corrective steps

The rebuttals by Pranab Kumar Mukherjee , the finance minister, a STRONG CASE WHY  he must not be made THE PRESIDENT OF INDIA by me in my blog post yesterday HERE

" S&P threatens India downgrade, FM rejects rating report " says DNA HERE

" Confident Pranab rejects S&P downgrade threat " says ibnlive.com HERE

" India rejects Standard & Poor's downgrade warning " says BBC HERE

" S&P fears misplaced, don't see deceleration in growth rate: C Rangarajan " says Economic Times HERE
" S&P downgrade warning spooks investors; Sensex down 51 pts " says Deccan Herald HERE

" Rupee down 17 paise against dollar " says Hindustan Times HERE
" BSE Sensex up on hopes for aggressive RBI " says Reuters HERE

" SENSEX " Google Search  HERE

Here is S&P Rogues Gallery

Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis on Wikipedia

S&P should avoid political predictions On threat of US Downgrade

Twenty-five people at the heart of the meltdown ... Check who Kathleen Corbet worked for !!!

Credit ratings: how Fitch, Moody's and S&P rate each country Check ratings of US UK SPAIN GERMANY FRANCE AND INDIA especially UK & US

S&P Strips U.S. of Top Credit Rating SHOCKING NO

Why Has S&P Downgraded the U.S.? BY REUTERS IT QUESTIONS S&P View

 Obama Officials Privately Asked S&P Not To Lower U.S. Credit Outlook: Report RoflMao

S&P Board Fires CEO For Telling The Truth, To Be Replaced With COO Of Citibank :-))))

So is Douglas Peterson getting back at India??
Remember , he was COO of Citibank and has vested interest in opening up of Banking , Insurance and Multibrand Retail in India.

Caution I am not a commie, I support free trade and Laissez Faire , subject to it is ethically right, which unfortunately , a private enterprise can never be. SEC and competition commission and FDA in US act only after media exposes a SCAM. ENRON, GOLDMAN SACHS, LEHMAN BROTEHRS, RBS, UBS, MERRYL LYNCH Check list

Check this rogues Gallery on sub-prime crisis see the box on the left  and see the affected countries. DEAR IDIOTS AT S&P Russsia a BRICS COUNTRY AND CHECK YOUR BLEDDY RATINGS STABLE AND POSITIVE BULLSHIT

Now the Countries affected and S&P Reaction

Greek government-debt crisis HERE

2008–2012 Irish financial crisis

Historical Sovereign Upgrades and Downgrades BY FITCH
How Markets Have Responded to Past Sovereign Downgrades 

Dear country men you may Diss at Mamata Didi, but if this is the way you want wealth distribution OWNERSHIP OF WAL-MART

Or liberalisation in Banking & Insurance like THIS remember AIG also went under. They Gamble on your money !!!

    Thank You, I dont want to be a part opf such India. S&P downgrade or   whatever!!

Also if you say FDI in Aviation is a solution READ THIS " Global airline industry: Unprofitable "
this is also evident from this extremely well written piece on cyclical industry AND EXAMPLE GIVEN IS AVIATION !!!

  My conclusion , S&P is trying to put pressure, remember Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan ? US view of world is with a total selfish view looking at US Interest, any of its geo-political and economic policies are directed at US Industry interest. Keeping this in mind, it NEVER lets its stranglehold on UN Security Council, NATO, IMF, IBRD OR G8 from its hands, if you see the Nobel Prize down the line , they are all awarded to those Individuals or Organisations , who take care of US Interest. The Global Warming and prize to Rabin & Sadat, Aung Sang Su Kyi, are evident examples. 

     Except Inflation, which predominantly is affecting India due to its heavy import bill of Crude, For this, the top 2% of population and not the Government is responsible. The Balance of Payment is heavily eroded due to increase in International Crude prices, which went up in recent years due to international economic and political instability as well as economic meltdown especially in eurozone. This can be rectified by increasing prices of Diesel and LPG which is mostly used by upper strata of the society who don't need any subsidy. I also recommend hevy rise in Excise and customs duty ON ALL CARS , SUV'S so that public at large is compelled to use public means of transport. In tandem reduce excise or remove on Transport equipment like Buses, Metro Rail, Subuirban Rail coaches and give tax breaks to organisations running public transport. Cess/Toll can be introduced on suburban Rapid Transport system and Roads and bridges . Increase in public transport, and reduction in owned vehicles will go a long way in controlling inflation. Irony is though the insurance costs have gone tremendously in comparison of the rise in petrol prices, there is not even a murmur by public at large. If you want something pay for it. NO FREE LUNCHES, which in turn hurt you later. 

A NOTE ON EOCNOMIC INDICATORS If we compare any economic data except inflation and unemployment 

see here 

my blog

wikipedia on unemployment data  you can sort it alphabetically and ascending / descending order.

              On GDP / IIP / fiscal deficit / interest rates (we can reduce it further OTHERS CAN'T!!!) we are in much better position than ANY country be it US, UK, Japan, Italy, Spain, France (Excluding Germany) The inflation figures though high are on a downward trend. Unemployement figure only higher than 2 g8 countries  US & UK . But we are in descending slope of the bell curve whereas ALL THE BLOODY COUNTRIES ARE ON ASCENDING STAGE GET IT?

  So what is working why mend it ?

The Remedial steps
The only solutions available to India is

A) End to policy paralysis due to the coalition scuttling of any positive legislation.
B) Bold and strong decisions, even taking risk of losing the right to rule, I very much doubt that any political party would let this government fall now, as no one is ready to face the electorate now.
F) Reduction of Direct tax. rates removing ANY EXEMPTIONS( PROSPECTIVE) exemptions to those who availed insurance/housing loan to continue to get benefit till closure of the contract)
G) Allowing transparent investment procedures discouraging circuitous participatory notes or tax haven investments and off-shore deals.
H) Increase of prices of Power, Water, Gas , Diesel, petrol by fixing transparent calculation methods on rise of currency / oil / input prices like coal/labour/steel.
I) Reduce indirect subsidy and introduce cash subsidy.
F) Incentives for export and employment oriented industries, in the form of interest/tax drawbacks. On execution not before.
H) Reduction of Interest rates, SLT/CRR not to be touched as the same will increase M1(money supply) and cause inflation)

Since I said even Bramha CANNOT take the above decisions except GST & DTC, which at least will help aam janta definitely.
After heavy reading can we laugh, for a few moments, life goes on and we have to live, inflation or no inflation.

  Why S&P is wrong ??

My view
Bust-Boom 3 year cycle
Bust years are, 2000-2003-2009-2012-2015
the pattern is uniform in all countries
To verify see Q1 data of 2009 & 2012


I havent given you any data indicators because all are given in my blog post HERE Which indicate, that THE ONLY WORRYSOME PART at the moment is Current account to GDP Ratio, which has fallen sharply, and the main reason is A Devaluation of rupee in comparison to Dollar and High Petrol Prices.

   I am able to prove that S&P are the worst of the 3 rationg agencies, and their activities are not above board.

   I would recommend a funny book to those who don't understand vagaries of finances, to read which is " God Save the Dork " by @sidin Vadukut. It indicates the unscrupulous ways Banks and Financial Execs operate, which in plain words is unethically. 


  1. Post Scripts

    The blog has had some great follow ups

    If you read my blog and chech the following links you will see my preddictions are predicting future

    1 Countervailing Excise Duty on Diesel Vehicles


    2 IATA Conference 2012 Beijing on Profit outlook of Airlines. KLM, Quantas, American Airlines Cathay Pacific are not doing well and are going for Restructuring, They are going for Labour agreeements(RETAINING EXISTING EMPLOYEES BUT RENEGOTIATING WAGES UNLIKR Ajit Singh, India happens to be only country where a Minister is alling the shots, whereas in all other countries, it is CEO's who do the talking. Ajit Singh needs to be SACKED IMMEDIATELY #Venuspeak )



    The hoarse cry for FDI in Airlines is uncalled for because the Aviation fuel issue is a worldwide issue and There is a profitable airline Indigo hence, those who can't run profitable Airlines must quit.


    3 JP Morgan loss might be much higher than $2 billion, it might be $8 billion . This happenned because of illegal trades , and top management KNEW ABOUT IT !!!! as per cnnmoney


    Other stories in respect of Jamie Dimon's yesterdays quizzing at the US Congress


    jp Morgan Chase Market Cap loses $27bn


    5 Questions for Jamie Dimon CEO JP Morgan Chase


    5 ways JP Morgan's troubles may affect US Banke clients.


    JP Morgan Trading losses weren't "isolated events"


    India has been lucky to have Had Harshad Mehta, Ketan Parekh and Shanker Sharma issues to strenghthen Bank investment strategies and market regulations, especially in derviatives, trading receipts and G-sec trades. The RBI banned Portfolio Management Scheme, where Banks assured returns and traded for clients.

    Still there is a need for the RBI to strenghthen the Trading Dealing rooms of Foreex/Money Market & Security trading in Treasury and Forex Department, because Deposit Insurance and Credit Gaurantee Corporation a government funded scheme has a liability towards every client at the rate of Ra1 lakh per client per bank. In case of a mass run on Banks like in Spain, there would be huge losses to the exchequer.

    Rate Cut murmurs CRR cut? Do you want another bout of inflation ? I disagree. I suggest Repo rate cut upto 50/75 BPS which MUST BE PASSED ON TO CUSTOMER UNLIKE PREVIOUS RATE CUT


    RBI cutting rates not the right solution now: HSBC Erik Eskesen


    Will rate cut by RBI help? Not really, says Morgan Stanley


    Finally employment and all above issues mentioned in my blog were taken up in Quest Means Business on CNN:) Do they read my blog ???

    I am serious !


    read transcript from beginning to end :-)

  2. Mr Chnadrashekhar CEO TCS said that hiring in India was up as compared to US UK Spain & Germany because there wsa Retail and other services which were seeing demand.

    I am very happy and stand by my logic The Standards at S&P are VERY POOR and its analysts want a compulsory tenure In India before commenting on India, basing their analysis on Data and Media reports and Utterances of Mr Deepak Parekh, Narayna Murthy and Azim Premji. The real market in India is Tier 3 cities like Nagpur, Ranchi, Jaipur , Kochi Not metros. To Know India travel around, what may be true in Noida may not be true in Kolkata , especially studying the real estate deals and income tax returns. My view is, the real results are judged by increase in sales/revenue and Income Tax returns, They are Real Indicators. GDP and Inflation are inaccurate numbers. ITAR is the real Data

    If most of the firms are seeing higher Sales, Revenues and profits How come they Grumble ??

    Get real
    Be a Man
    Have the guts to invest
    If you dont have the propensity to take risks
    Quit business and join a PSU
    Because worldwide it is a THUMB RULE
    You build processes and capabilitions during BUST
    AND encash it during BOOM
    Boom Boom Boom Boom

    This is the perfect time of raising funds from primary market. At low premiums, the investors will thank you during boom, dont be too greedy to raise funds in Boom like Reliance Power, DLF , CIL did and then shaved off small investors hard earned money

    Let everyone earn

  3. http://www.profit.ndtv.com/News/Article/auto-stocks-fall-on-diesel-duty-concerns-m-m-worst-hit-306101

  4. http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2012-06-13/could-this-be-indias-golden-moment#p1 read this Story which says " Could This Be India's Golden Moment? " Everything I say above in here.

  5. Another link relevant to this post http://www.economist.com/node/21556953?fsrc=scn/tw/te/ar/goingtoextratime The Spanish Bailout, Going to Extra Time ( on Euro 125 bn Spain Bank Bailout ) on The Economist.