Tuesday, October 21, 2014

VenuG Presents: Econimic Outlook in India after Diesel Price deregulation

K Venugopal Menon
Look Dear Right Wing Bhakts,
You may crack Jokes,
About # AmulBaby
# HellYeah
Americai Narayanan
Sanjay Jha,
But do care to look,
is the real picture
Of # maharesults
# HaarYaaNaa
Not absolute majority in Haryana
Not Largest Single Party in Maharashtra,
Both for BJP.
The Fact of the matter is,
BJP won less seats,
Got lesser votes,
In both Haryana & Maharashtra,
As compared to
# LokSabha2014
I support Congress & Its Policies,
Oppose BJP Policies,
Neither am I a bilnd pet poodle of Rahul Baba
Nor a NaMo Troll.
If today, BJP Releases the blocked Kolkata Metro
Project # JokaBBDBag
& #RajarhatHowrah
Track funds,
I shall cast my vote to BJP,
Neither Congress Nor TMC.
CPM is not an option to me, for the Aam Janata
Of # Kolkata & # WestBengal
If BJP scraps # MNREGA or
# JNURM OR # MPLAD Schemes, shall ask voters
to punish BJP.
Note: If MNREGA & MPLAD schemes are
The benefits arrived at by Reduction of Diesel
prices by MoP by Rs 3.37 & Sure Shot impending
reduction in #RBI rates by 50 basis points, by RBI
Governor Mr Raghuram Rajan, will be nullified, as
both the schemes combined are Rs20000 Crores +
Rs5 Crores * 546 MPs = Rs 2730 Crores. JNURM
is Rs 15000 Crores.
Rs37730 Crores removed from the M1 shall have a
StagDeflationary effect.
Indistries affected would be,
# Telecom # Auto # TwoWheeler
# WhiteGoods
# PackagedSnack
# AeratedDrinks
The firms likely to be affected are, Airtel,
Vodafone, Idea Cellular, Tata Telecom, Hero
Motors, Bajaj Auto, Hindustan Unilever, Proctor &
Gamble, Colgate Palmolive, Godrej Soaps, Tata
Chemicals , TVS Industries, Videocon, Whirlpool,
Electrolux, Samsung India, Sony, Haeir,
LG Electronics, Godrej Soaps, Godrej Foods, Ruchi
Soya, Pepsico, Coca Cola, Parle Products.
The chain effect will be on
A) # MakeInIndia Fails as the above are all the
focus area of Make in India viz #Manufacturing
B) Lack of Credit offtake due to lack of demand,
from Tier II & Tier III cities & Rural Market, which
is 300% of the Urban Market.
C) The lack of disposable income, would also
affect, Textile industry, affecting Steel, Machine
Above creates
I) Demand absence.
II) Reduced demand = Deflation.
III) Deflation creates Stagnation
Hence the term
StagDeflatiion repalaces Stagflation.
# Macroeconomic indicators.
Inflation: South Bound.
Interest Rates : South Bound.
Demand: South Bound(if MNREGA, MPLAD,
JNURM fiddled with for 2 years.
If status quo maintained, II & III shall be North
Credit offtake North bound if Status quo,
South bound, if Tweaked.
# MicroEconomics
GDP, GNP, NNP, Per Capita Income, is North
Bound, with or without Tweaking.
Due to Crude oil prices staying stable.
This is due to deflation in Europe preventing US &
Allied / G20 forces not trying any
Adventures in Eastern Europe or Middle east.
# GeoPolitics
Europe & US entering difficult phases.
Due to Ukraine Gas.
Advisable holidays during long & cold winter.
Gas prices will rise.
Nymex & Brent Stable.
The phase for Germany , China & India to Rock the
world & rule.
Currency. Rupee entering bullish phase, & lower
crude prices would improve #CAD # BoT # BoP
Fiscal Deficit to improve.
GDP to 5-5.2% range.
Fiscal Deficit to be likely
= 3-3.5% of the GDP
Foreign Currency Reserves will rise to
On account of lower petroleum product bill
+ Huge FDI inflow into India again due to Crude
not BJP.
Remnimbi, INR & if Deutscheland moves out of €
then DM are Greenbacks of the future.
Happy note to Mr Modi.
I want BJP Government to Tweak, MNREGA
Special reading reccommended to
Dhruv Menon Saswata Chakraborty Abir Satsangi
And any other student of Economics, Commerce,
Technology Graduates please
Either take up Navratna Jobs
Or join a B-School till 2016.
# Careers are in Mfg
For Labour.
Focus shifted to # ShramevJayate from #termITES
#ITI not #IIT
Class XIIth kids
Anything but computer engineering.
Civil, Mechanical , Chemichals, Mettalurgy,
Electrical in that order.
#MfgTech not #TechMahindra
Medicine, Fashion, Film Production, Video
Technology, Law, Design, BioTech, Pharmachology
or Medicine are the future 10 years.
Late by 4 months.
Waited till Maharashtra Ekections.
Food prices stable or south bound.
Iti Vaartaah
Shubh Ratri — feeling Enlightened.

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