Monday, June 20, 2011

Whither Sensex VenuSpeak on My Views on Sensex . I'm truly bullish 18k is the bottom it is buying opportunity now.

Rider : These are personal views of K.Venugopal Menon .. Please consult your Financial Advisers before acquiring Stocks always .. Because market perception changes by the Minute ..

Example:- If UPAII falls market will crash .. If , if petroleum gas prices go up .. Market crashes .. So take your personal investment decision on your personal financial advisors advice .. Not my utterances ..

Portfolio mix for a 30 yr old married person .

1 PF double the amount stipulated by employer if employer deducts 10% and contributes another 10% you should contribute another 10%

2 PPF IN SBI / BOB Ra 15000 per year Till Sec 88 exists after which pension fund


3 INCOME * 10 LIFE INSURANCE COVER

3(a) + 5 LAKHS FLOATER MEDICLAIM (CASHLESS )


Left over cash savings


4 Bank deposits 20%

5 mutual fund 20% of which

5(i) Sensex linked 25% Switch to debt frequently 60:40 to 40:60
5(ii) SIP 50% Switch to debt frequently 60:40 to 40:60
5(iii) sector funds 25% Highly risky
Switch to debt frequently 60:40 to 40:60

6 10% NSC till section 88 exists rollover maturities back after 6 years

7 10% BOND KHOKHA's debentures from market BOUGHT AT DISCOUNT FROM MARKET when bank interest rates go up/ or Sensex crashes Bond prices go up.. hence always buy bonds when Sensex is heated up or RBI reduces interest rates.

8 20% IN STOCKS
check link please how sometimes SENSEX BEHAVES IRRATIONALY IT FALLS ON NO REASON SOMETIMES

9 20% Cash liquid in Casa Account

Want to be a Warren Buffett .. Build your perfect portfolio .. Say Economic Times .. &
my buddy Shifali Ummatt a MF dealer of good repute shares it on Fb ..

What Economic Times failed to mention ..

'' Never believe a word written in Economic Times .. '' #VenuSpeak

Why I say Sensex would rise ..

A) Consumer demand has not fallen for core areas like Steel , Cement , Iron Ore , Copper

B) Infrastructure jobs are on the Anvil in huge numbers ..
So engineering graduates to take civil & chemical engineering not ECE or IT or Computers .. Electronics is fine. Days of softwares are numbered.

C) Inspite of high interest rates Credit offtake is facing heavy pressure .. Being a banker I can say Bank Credit will see 20% rise in March 2012 balance sheet .

D) Jobs are on the rise so are pay packets .

E) Except for Cars & Motor Cycles or +40 lakhs houses .. Demand is constant

F) We are 1.3 billion people .. Check how much Atta you use for you family chappati's . Divide by number of family members .. Multiply by 3*30*12*1.3bn / 2 /2 as 50% rice eaters .. This is just for Atta .. Clothing shelter follow .. India China can never fail in future I stand by India #1 Economic power circa 2015

G) Sector .. Banking , Infrastructure , IT Hardware , Food , Agriculture based .. Fertilizers , Pesticides , Tractors . HCL , SBI , PNB , CORPORATION BANK , OBC , HDFC BANK , YES BANK , TATA STEEL , SAIL , REC , PFC , NTPC , HCL TECHNOLOGY , ROLTA INDIA , PATNI COMPUTERS , CMC , NIIT .

H) Sector to ignore Software ( $ is a highly overrated currency ) Housing finance related banks , Banks high on vehicle loans , Automobile ( except Maruti Suzuki/ Hero Honda / Bajaj Scooters ) Retail , Telecom , Firm investing abroad . Say Tata acquiring Land Rover @ $ = Ra 48 .. Sells $= Ra 40 they pay 48 get 40 20% loss in exchange risk .. So investing abroad with a falling $ is foolish ..

I) Imagine this If Berkshire Hathaway ( Warren Buffet's Firm) had invested Into India $ 1 , in October 2008 when $ 1 was Ra 48.48 and sold it today with $ at 44.78 it would have gained 7.46% just on the currency appreciation .. Ra appreciating by the day .. think what would he gain in 2015, when I perceive $ to be 35 per $ 27.80% .



&




Thanks for your share Shifali .. .. This goes on my blog ..
You made me wrack my Bankers Brain @Shifali Ummatt ..
Using your name and not nickname as this thread goes verbatim on my Blog

Dear Blogger it took 40 attempts and 2 tweets for me to post this blog.


I am warned that I post spam .. this reflects badly on your network security & also affects my freedom of expression

Hope you like my effort feel free to comment.. once again these are my views, and you may differ from me which is acceptable to me
Jai Hind
Good Night
@kvenugopalmenon on twitter

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