Monday, July 23, 2012

Subbu Sab Janta Hai , par VenuG bhi thoda bahut janta hai State Of The Nation, Pictures say it all

These are 9 pictures 
I usually put up my Annual Economic forecast
State of the Nation
latest by June 30TH every year.
But This year
Met & Media reports were
confusing me a lot!!!

                              The Chief MET spokesperson for once was misguiding economic analysts and forecasters, on his Monsoon forecast. So for the first time in these 15 years I delved deep into MET website & got myself area-wise rain forecast PDFs with a map, prepared by MET , which confirmed my hunch. Economic forecasters, business analysts, entrepreneurs & Doctors, use clinical tests only to confirm, the symptoms come to us by years of experience. Conservative scientists are always very patient and observant of symptoms. That is why like animal instinct, they can judge an earthquake, tsunami, flood or fever, much before normal human beings do that. Am not boasting, in these 15 years , only 1 forecast of mine in respect of India went wrong, That was 2011, and I did not properly analyse the Political risk from Janlokpal movement. Leave alone me, no one did!!!..I tweeted about my analysis on 10/7/2012, I this time took a screenshot of those tweets, and now forecast the following.

                     I have in my previous  posts already proved, That Anna Hazare movement is purely responsible for the economic drubbing that India received in 2011. It was a human creation, not a fallout of any economic trigger.

           The pictures say it all look at a link  in the 1st tweet of 5TH picture titled State of The Nation

I will quickly add the pictures after which I will give you added links of last week, i.e. post 10TH July 20
(the day these tweets were posted :-)

Blogging hampered by a strange sudden event, pc getting powered off, blogger not saving posts, the error message is "There is surge on USB Ports" Which vanishes if and when I type in MS-WORD, but re-surfaces whenever I get on twitter/blogger . The blogger error message is "  
An error occurred while trying to save or publish your post. Please try again. Ignore warning " :-) Gotcha Blogger..

what follows is typed in MS-WORD AND COPY PASTED

I can tweet via sms :-)

Normally my forecast has been out by June 30TH each year, but this year, owing to confusing signals from Chief MET spokes person, on Monsoon, I was puzzled. The macro economic signals and the reports from my network of ex employee farmers in Rajasthan, Western UP, Maharashtra and West Bengal were giving me bleak crop outlook and here was the MET spokes person saying Monsoon was normal. Except the Andhra Tamil Nadu sector, crop outlook Pan India is Bleak. Floods in Liecester, UK, drought in Mid West US, Floods in Russia, South China, The weather gods are behaving exactly opposite of what it has been for the past 5 years. Read anyone who has traveled to California, London, Moscow or South China, read Vir Sanghvi (rude food in @HTBrunch ) ask @richardquest watch @CNN world weather carefully. Wether is Terribly Horrible. After all Pachauri might be right!!! Latest news is that a Glacier has detached itself from Greenland.

I have been dead right every year, except for the last year, where I erred in reading the signals of the Janlokpal Civil society movement of Sh Anna Hazare, I have proved in my previous posts, that the economic turmoil in India has matched with the agitation dates of Jalokpal movement, so if you are a stock market investor, be ready to buy on 25TH July, when the next phase of their movement takes place.

The only difference between what Oprah Winfrey says “ Indians still eat with hands “ & Arvind Kejriwal “ Neta donon haathon se kha rahee hain “ J It is about eating and how. Whatever one says, Business means profit, means hoodwinking, actually, the biggest corruption on the face of earth is by Apple Inc, however logic you may give me, it is blatant cheating of a consumer. Corruption and Profit are one and the same thing. It is conservative Keynesians like us, me , Bernanke, Buffet, who use reverse psychology, to make a killing. If you behave in a herd mentality, you lose, ALWAYS.

Please check bitly link on 1st tweet  in picture 5 to check Indian Monsoon scenario please picture titled :->  State of The Nation 1

In the end I will add current news links to confirm my analogy later, please come back tomorrow to check them. Thank you.

Banking Scenario Principles behind CRR & SLR 1
Picture 1

Banking Scenario Principles behind CRR & SLR 2
Picture 2

Picture 3

Picture 4

State of The Nation 1
Picture 5

State of The Nation 2
Picture 6

State of The Nation 3
Picture 7

State of The Nation 4
Picture 8

State of The Nation 5
Picture 9


1 CRR SLR Repo rate  STATUS QUO i.e. no change!!!

2 Sensex Bullish on account opf Food Security Bill, GST, North bound food prices, Infrastructural pending orders.
Positive Sectors FMCG, Manufacturing, Infrastructure like L&T , Seimens,  Walchand, Gammon India (METRO PROJECTS) HUL, Nestle, Jubilant Group(Bhartias Jubilant Foods & Organosys) Pharma (for generic drug growth), Computer Hardware  & Mobile apps, Retail (Indian firms only)  Specific Airtel, Maruti Udyog(all other auto –ve), TCS (all opther software –ve), Hero Motor corp, Bajaj Scooters (Two wheelers bullish)
PSU Banks. HDFC HDFC Bank & Yes Bank. Computer education.
Bullish sectors 2 wheeler, PSU OIL( FOR DIESEL PRICES) Education, Road/Metro Infra, Nuclear & Space Infra, Food majors, Pesticides.
Negative Sectors: Software, 4 wheeler. Not naming 4 PSU banks as I happen to be a banker. ( google CAR DEFICIENT) Telecom, Realty , Healthcare (private on litigation costs) Farm Equipment, Fertilizers Anything remotely related to Agriculture. Export oriented.

Those Firms concentrating on US & European exports Bearish, those exporting to Germany Middle East Civil works & Africa bullish. Most of Birla Firms and TCS should do good. The focal point being, any firm which is product diversified, or market diversified will thrive & those concentrating on US & Europe falter.

3 Gold hyper bullish as Currency market and Oil will falter  Gold is the natural fall back asset during times of economic uncertainity.

4 Commodities Food Bullish Metals bearish.

5 Silver Bullish because of unrest in Middle east, the  Petro Dollars will flow more towards white metal, than investments, as Sheiks would be vary of investing, during uncertain times of US & European turmoil.

6 China is seeing heavy political and civil unrest. More and more negative news emanating from China, on climatic conditions as well as civil disturbance, The sopcio economic condition in China is bad due to high inflation. Crops have failed in Southern China and Urban populace is reeling under price rise in realty and food inflation.

7 Interest rate. Spain and Italy have seen spurt in interest rates and Germany & Japan are seeking a fee to take deposits. This indicates bullish trend & hardening of interest rates.

8 Diwali Forecast BAD DIWALI WORST IN 5 YEARS. See Monsoon chart of 5 years to confirm.

9 Light in the Tunnel. Only one way out. Focus in equity raising as that happens top be the ONLY WAY OUT , for the corporate, because

i)                    Firms have a huge stockpile of cash
ii)                   Public has no way for investment as Mutual funds are all negative
iii)                 Gold is the only other investment option
iv)                 Public saving in Banks shows –ve growth which  indicates public holding a huge cash pile , which can be exploited
10 Don’t expect much from Governments, because, the experience of Greece, Spain & Italy have made Sovereign Funds and Central Bankers risk averse

11 BREAKING NEWS Watch a Programme running on CNN international on after effects of Olympics. My study of the subject shows, London will follow Montreal & Athens and not Barcelona & Atlanta reason being

a)      Look at tourism industry
b)      Airline Industry
c)      International Holiday expense data
d)      All the above show negligible travel ti Greece & Spain in spite of heavy discounts

Pray for all, if you have a job, treasure it, if you are entering career, postpone it, by joining a value addition course, because your starting package would decide, where you end up. If you are an entrepreneur, consolidate, improvise and invest, build capabilities for the Boom, which in my view shall be in 2013 for sure.

My bust years 1991(oil crisis middle east Iraq)-1994(Harshad Mehta scam)-
1997(CRB Capotal)-2000(Infotech bust)-2003(AfPak)-2006(Oil)-2009(eurozone)-2012(Weather) so If I see the trends 2013-14 will be boom phase

Lets pray

Optimism: What goes down comes up and vice versa, Samay ka khela hai, upar neechey, aana jaana laga rehta hai, Keep Smiling & stay calm

May there be peace


 Greece should pay wages through Drachma GERMAN MP via reuters HERE

Monsoon Deficient Areas via The Telegraph Kolkata HERE

1 comment:

  1. Check The latest news on financial crisis in Europe. Especially after yesterdays bear short selling in Spain & demonstrations in Madrid